- Horváth study projects: One million humanoid robots in operation by 2030
- Mass production starts in 2026; payback possible in under two years – and even sooner as costs fall and performance rises
- Despite efficiency and quality gains: Only two out of five CEOs plan to invest by 2027
Within five years, roughly one million human-like robots will be at work in China and the United States alone, according to projections from Horváth’s study “Redefining Operations with Humanoid Robots.” The latest generation of robots matches human size and weight and can run at speeds exceeding six miles per hour – comparable to a jogging pace. Models from leading manufacturers include Figure 01 to 03, Digit, and Tesla Optimus. Their primary applications will be in logistics and manufacturing, particularly in the automotive sector. For example, Figure 02 from California-based Figure AI has been operating at BMW’s Spartanburg plant in the US for over a year.
By 2028, humanoids will handle complete workflows
“Within three years, we’ll see humanoids initially managing sub-processes and then progressing to multi-step tasks in logistics and production. This marks the shift from single-purpose to multi-purpose robots. By around 2035, we expect general-purpose robots capable of working across multiple domains,” predicts Horváth Partner Andreas Brauchle. These robots will outperform humans in efficiency and require no breaks – aside from brief charging intervals.
Key figures illustrate the scale of change: By the end of the decade, a humanoid robot is expected to cost about $55,000 – the price of a mid-range car. Based on pilot projects and conservative estimates, robots will be 3.5 times more efficient than humans, with work quality nearly doubling. Current calculations show payback in roughly 20 months – excluding initial setup costs.
Despite efficiency gains: Only 2 in 5 CEOs plan major investments
Horváth’s study reveals that just 39% of executives at manufacturing firms intend to make significant investments in developing and testing the new generation of robots within the next two years. Given the manageable hurdles and substantial efficiency gains, Horváth experts consider this figure too low. “Companies should start implementing humanoid robots now,” urges Brauchle. “For the German automotive industry in particular, early adoption of robotics offers a chance to regain global competitiveness.” Entry is easiest where workflows are standardized and repeatable. However, Brauchle stresses that employees must be trained to work alongside robotic colleagues – a cultural and organizational shift that needs to start today.
Growth opportunities in a new industry
The first mass-produced robots for industrial pilot programs and early applications are expected in 2026, with most providers planning this step within two years. Market activity is accelerating: The number of vendors is rising globally, and announced products and patent filings – including from Germany – are increasing. A new market is taking shape, offering growth potential not only for technology users but also for suppliers and service providers.
From 2035: Applications in care and household
By 2035, humanoid robots will surpass humans in nearly all everyday tasks. High-capacity batteries will enable extended operating times, and robots will largely manage their own maintenance and charging. They will also match human capabilities in communication and interaction. Tactile learning through fingertip sensors will allow efficient deployment in households and in elderly and healthcare settings.
About the study
Horváth’s “Redefining Operations with Humanoid Robots” is based on interviews with over 70 major global manufacturing companies, with a focus on German-speaking markets. The study also incorporates external sources from manufacturers and industry publications worldwide, enriched by Horváth’s own market insights in collaboration with research firm Nexery.
