• Unanimous view: Digital supply chains will become a prime target for hackers
• Revenue expected to grow by up to 7.4 percent in 2026, while the workforce is expected to shrink by 0.6 percent, although the outlook varies significantly across segments (rail, avia-tion, etc.)
• 84 percent believe purely volume-driven growth models have reached their limits

The transport and logistics industry expects noticeable growth in 2026. Companies expect revenue to increase by up to 7.4 percent, depending on the specific market segment. At the same time, the workforce is expected to shrink by 0.6 percent, particularly in indirect functions, as economic pressure remains high: Although the average EBIT margin is expected to increase from 5.6 to 6.2 percent, it will still remain well below the service industry average of 13.3 percent. New risks are also emerging: All executives surveyed expect an increase in cyberattacks on transport and logistics networks. 95 percent see increasing regulation and bureaucracy, as well as the declining reliability of political commitments, as a burden on performance and profitability. This affects not only public transportation but also aviation, for example. These are findings from Horváth’s “Transportation, Travel & Logistics 2026” study.

Cost pressure remains the number one issue, as low margins continue to shape the management agenda. Improving the cost and earnings structure remains the top priority in the CxO ranking. AI and digital transformation follow in second place as important levers for increasing efficiency, gaining importance after ranking fourth in the previous year. The reorganization of structures and processes is the third-highest priority, moving up from sixth to third place compared with the previous year. “While the industry expects growth, this does not automatically translate into higher profits,” says Christian Schnöbel, Partner at Horváth. “What matters is how growth is generated, how pricing positions are maintained, and how economies of scale can be leveraged to make a tangible contribution to earnings. That is precisely why costs, structures, and revenue models are all being closely scrutinized at the same time.”

Growth expectations for 2027 are lower than for 2026. Many companies aim to complete their workforce consolidation in 2026 and subsequently rebuild capacity for profitable growth, particularly outside the DACH region. In Western and Southern Europe, around 42 percent also expect employment to decline. The study attributes this development primarily to changing trade flows, the relocation of industrial value creation, and challenging conditions in domestic markets.

Cyberattacks Are Becoming a Business Risk

Networks are the backbone of many transport and logistics companies, and that is precisely what makes them vulnerable. Of the CxOs surveyed, 52 percent agree and 48 percent strongly agree that cyberattacks on transport and logistics networks will increase as digital supply chains increasingly become targets of geopolitical attacks. “When critical systems fail, it is not just an IT system that comes to a standstill, but the operations of the production system itself. Cybersecurity is therefore not a reactive issue of protecting against threats but must be addressed proactively. Resilience is becoming a critical capability, as it determines a company’s ability to deliver and safeguard revenue,” explains Horváth Partner Christian Schnöbel.

Despite industry-wide awareness of the threats posed by such attacks, cybersecurity ranks only fourth among strategic priorities and has even fallen two places compared with the previous year. This is less due to a decline in the level of threat and more to increasing pressure from other directions: 94 percent of respondents expect continued strong margin pressure. Alongside supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices have also become significantly more important compared with the previous year. In their view, clear positioning, the realization of economies of scale, and rigorous cost and earnings management will become even more important for profitability and long-term competitiveness.

Customers Place Greater Emphasis on Reliability

At the same time, approaches to growth are changing across many industry segments and business models. 84 percent of executives believe that traditional, volume-based growth models have largely reached their limits. Going forward, growth is expected to be driven more by revenue quality, i.e., effective yield management, additional revenue streams, and differentiated services. In addition, 90 percent observe that reliability and punctuality are increasingly more important to logistics customers than maximum speed. “Higher volumes are not an end in themselves. For many logistics companies, how reliably they deliver, what additional services they offer, and how consistently they manage their revenue are becoming increasingly important. In essence, this is, to some extent, a reflection of the growing importance of resilience,” says Schnöbel.

Excessive regulation is also putting increasing pressure on all companies in the transport and logistics industry in the DACH region: 68 percent see international competitive disadvantages because, in their view, change initiatives and management attention are too heavily driven by regulation, while the focus should actually be clearly on innovation and the further development of business and operating models.

AI Is Still Being Held Back by Data and Systems

Innovation, particularly in the technological field, plays a major role for transport and logistics companies. Digitalization is essential to avoid falling behind and to withstand cost pressure. 84 percent of respondents expect AI and technology to become a key source of competitive advantage, or to result in competitive disadvantages for companies that fail to harness this potential.

Although AI ranks second on the management agenda and is therefore a top priority, a significant share of its potential remains untapped: 80 percent of executives believe that the industry is not yet deploying AI with the necessary speed and breadth, for example in planning, dispatching, and customer service. Its use is most advanced in customer communication and service. In operational and administrative processes, around half of companies are at least pursuing a structured approach to using AI to create value. In performance management and management decision-making, by contrast, almost 90 percent are still at a very early stage of development.

At the same time, 83 percent of companies expect a moderate or high growth impact from an improved digital customer experience and digital channels. For digital infrastructure and core systems, the figure is even 87 percent. According to the CxOs, further development is being held back primarily by inadequate data structures, fragmented systems, data security concerns, a lack of end-to-end integration, and insufficient capabilities. “Many companies have long understood where AI can help. The more difficult part is implementing it and integrating it into existing operations. Particularly in logistics, new applications encounter established system landscapes and heterogeneous data. As long as these foundations are not in place, some of the potential will remain untapped,” says Schnöbel.

The results show an industry that needs to reposition itself despite positive future prospects. Costs and margins remain under pressure, cyber risks are increasing, and traditional volume-based models are losing momentum. For many companies, it will therefore be crucial to drive profitable growth increasingly through reliability, technology, and appropriate revenue models.

About the Study

For the Horváth study “Transportation, Travel & Logistics 2026,” a representative selection of board members and managing directors from the industry was surveyed. The sample comprises 46 respondents, with whom in-depth personal interviews were conducted. The interviews were conducted as part of the international, cross-industry Horváth study “CxO Priorities 2026,” for which more than 1,000 corporate decision-makers were surveyed in total.